Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 81836.666130 86378.761835 90917.921537 95791.265901 100871.991003 106009.447163 111593.587280
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 74910.087520 81908.393193 89095.954028 97019.350544 105498.367336 114289.466980 124082.639151
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 68920.876722 77518.693985 86543.029328 96700.060258 107791.999760 119515.566452 132821.704558
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 65530.862272 75447.663150 86044.171226 98174.335912 111639.714512 126092.700751 142741.743526
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 62435.559504 73382.108889 85264.239356 99068.442133 114610.844959 131515.351834 151236.381910
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 59286.879905 71014.716931 83929.346143 99135.764854 116477.359907 135563.828629 158082.960566
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 56399.603364 68758.187296 82550.056949 98991.330514 117961.966292 139067.988940 164225.420873
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54986.809910 68094.877569 82896.949849 100735.590798 121530.684558 144885.131256 172970.103953
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 53710.709049 67501.568776 83247.931857 102418.022375 124978.665002 150536.790961 181522.833502
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 52044.161155 66355.620214 82873.542167 103181.679606 127301.883450 154855.544049 188521.957562
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 50033.903949 64707.477544 81824.377452 103072.996760 128537.341305 157863.305129 193966.444330
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 48466.495494 63527.733202 81273.377734 103502.348669 130364.832035 161534.590068 200176.089745
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46718.658354 62089.857876 80387.698722 103521.036721 131715.004725 164680.331020 205836.792057
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45731.887175 61558.930656 80578.243892 104827.906079 134612.317932 169679.449483 213740.112445
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 43990.154728 60016.468506 79467.514088 104488.150867 135468.796080 172207.878551 218675.146757
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 43283.095376 59753.285556 79917.656647 106056.804299 138650.243520 177543.414263 227016.166763
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 42331.204982 59137.428714 79893.516937 107008.008157 141054.619840 181933.788894 234226.731177
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 41028.452961 58021.866426 79197.822346 107079.625872 142339.555258 184941.935432 239750.933777
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39694.519439 56821.220989 78353.518305 106925.976300 143313.019344 187548.523033 244776.885468
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 39316.720274 56864.028044 79091.699104 108781.343614 146814.426475 193290.314696 253698.447072
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38933.560612 56881.173150 79783.517626 110570.575515 150235.433970 198948.046082 262549.386582
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 38158.226976 56344.837783 79732.145470 111382.592148 152404.009240 203045.588463 269476.044181
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 37035.461256 55304.035219 78988.457387 111267.031277 153364.380336 205616.912420 274495.269130